Antique Violin

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How much will my cello appreciate in the next 10 years?

I own a 100 year old cello, from an unheard maker Edmund Paulus Markneukirchen. The cello was appraised is 1985 for $5,000, which with inflation today is about $10,000. I came in possession of it two years ago, and got it repaired and re appraised by Horst H Uebel, who works on the instruments for the Cleveland Orchestra, and appraised it for $6,000 after top and neck repairs were required.

How much can I expect this cello to be appraised for in ten years? or percentage per year. I hear antique violins appreciate around 11% per year?

First of all, were both appraisals the same kind? If the first one was an Insurance appraisal and the second a Fair Market Value appraisal that can make a big difference. Violin family items do not appreciate just because of inflation, sometimes they actually loose money. It all depends on how hard or soft the market is. As as example, my father purchased two violins in 1973 - both for $2000 each, one was by E. H Roth from the 1920's and now worth around $8000. The second was by Joseph Hel from around 1890 and is now valued at $40,000. Obviously the first violin did no where near as well and did not get anywhere near doubling in value every 10 years as your 11% per year implies (that would have been $32,000). Because of the soft market and because Markneukirchen instruments are not that rare or collectible, the last 10 years has been almost flat for collect-ability of them. Since the violin family instrument is a collectible, it fluctuates with the whims of the market. I think the $6000 estimate of value is about correct for today, maybe a little low but all that depends on condition. If the repairs that were needed had devalued the instrument - if the top crack was near the sound post area, then that could always keep the value low.

So it might go up, it might go down or it might stay flat. Violins should be purchased for their usefulness as a tool (their sound quality) and just like stocks you might win and you might not.

FYI - Edmund Paul us is not completely unknown, a viola sold at auction for $2000, but he is not listed in any reference books.

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